Best Football Option 41135251439877987

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While the bookies constantly improve their soccer prediction methods and try and avoid paying out, we can still find holes in their predictions. The question is how. There is no one million-dollar answer. On the other hand, there are actually two ways that may permit you to beat the bookies. A proven way is to analyze non-measurable match information. Another way is to improve on statistical prediction models employed by bookmakers.

The first method requires you to analyze data such as match type or priority, which is just not utilized in statistical models. Among-the most prominent factors which may influence the outcome of a soccer match are:

Match type that may be an international/national league, a cup, or perhaps a friendly game. Especially profitable for you are the cup finals, where the media selects favorites as well as the better informed punter can make the most of betting on the highly priced underdog teams.

Match priority. Each team must define its priority for the forthcoming matches, since team resources are restricted. European national cups are good examples for the top teams of low priority games.

Match time is very important, since soccer predictions tend to be inaccurate at the beginning and at the end of the season.

Players’ injuries, illnesses and transfers especially within the cases of key players. Bookmakers’ odds tend to be calculated before these facts is accessible.

European Leagues – predictable and unpredictable. The Italian, Norwegian, French and Spanish leagues will be considered predictable. The unpredictable will be the English and German leagues, especially at the beginning and the end of the season.

Other factors are pitch conditions, team managers, match attendance, weather conditions and, remember, pure chance.

To analyze all that information for every match would be have a peek at this web-site complicated and time-consuming task. The alternative is to use advanced statistical prediction methods, which constitute a noticeable difference on bookies’ prediction models.

Why can their models be further improved? Foremost, when analyzing bookies’ predictions carefully, it really is easy to notice that their models are based on average statistics. Low odds usually correspond to teams with high table positions and vice versa. It is clear that the accuracy of their models suffers when team skills change. Thus, by taking into account team skill dynamics, you can improve your profit by placing a bet on highly priced underdogs.

Second, the bookmakers’ models don’t distinguish between the attacking and defensive strengths of soccer teams and do not remember that soccer teams choose different strategies when playing at home or away. As soon as you learn to distinguish between attacking and defensive strengths, you can simply forecast the total range of goals and beat the bookies at under/over bets.

Statistical models that were developed over the past number of years explain historical match results with regards to changing skills and strategy. Bookmakers don’t use such advanced models. Properly designed and optimized time-dependent models can predict just as much as 70% of matches, outperforming the bookies’ predictions whose accuracy is much lower.

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