In today’s interconnected global economy, understanding a country’s trade performance is crucial for policymakers, investors, and businesses seeking to navigate international markets. Vietnam, a fast-emerging economy in Southeast Asia, has been on the radar for its robust export-led growth. The Vietnam balance of trade serves as a vital indicator of its economic health, industrial competitiveness, and integration into the global supply chain.
This article dives deep into the Vietnam trade balance 2024, evaluates the Vietnam trade surplus 2025, and explores key factors shaping the nation’s trade landscape, backed by authentic Vietnam shipment data and insights from a leading Vietnam trade data provider.
Understanding the Trade Balance
Before analyzing Vietnam’s trade dynamics, let’s revisit the basics:
Trade Balance = Total Exports – Total Imports
- Trade Surplus: Exports exceed imports, leading to a net inflow of foreign currency.
- Trade Deficit: Imports surpass exports, causing a net outflow of foreign currency.
Vietnam has historically maintained a trade surplus since 2012, driven primarily by strong export growth in electronics, textiles, footwear, and agricultural products.
Vietnam Trade Balance 2024: Snapshot and Performance
According to official Vietnam shipment data, the country recorded a trade surplus of around $24.7 billion in 2024, one of the highest on record.
- Exports: $405 billion
- Imports: $380 billion
Key drivers included:
- Electronics & Semiconductors – The largest export category, contributing significantly to the Vietnam balance of trade.
- Textiles & Garments – Despite global demand fluctuations, Vietnam retained its position as a leading apparel exporter.
- Agricultural & Seafood Exports – Benefited from global supply gaps, boosting rural incomes and export revenues.
The Vietnam trade balance 2024 clearly reflected resilience despite global headwinds such as inflationary pressures, geopolitical risks, and slower demand recovery in Europe.
Vietnam Trade Surplus 2025: Emerging Trends
In the first quarter of 2025, Vietnam posted a trade surplus of $3.1 billion, slightly below the same period in 2024. Full-year projections estimate a surplus between $20–25 billion, assuming no major global disruptions.
Key observations from Vietnam trade data:
- Exports grew 4.5% year-over-year, led by electronics and machinery.
- Imports rose only 1.8%, signaling moderate domestic demand recovery.
- Top Export Markets: United States, EU, China, South Korea, Japan.
- Key Imports: Electronics components, machinery, petroleum, plastics.
This steady Vietnam trade surplus 2025 underscores Vietnam’s position as a reliable export hub in Asia.
Yearly Vietnam Balance of Trade: 2014–2025
| Year | Vietnam Trade Balance ($) |
|---|---|
| 2014 | $2.1 billion |
| 2015 | -$3.5 billion |
| 2016 | $2.7 billion |
| 2017 | $2.9 billion |
| 2018 | $6.8 billion |
| 2019 | $11.1 billion |
| 2020 | $19.9 billion |
| 2021 | $4.1 billion |
| 2022 | $11.2 billion |
| 2023 | $28.4 billion |
| 2024 | $24.7 billion |
| 2025 Q1 | $3.1 billion |
The Vietnam balance of trade has consistently remained positive since 2016, barring minor fluctuations.
Key Sectors Driving Vietnam’s Trade Balance
1. Electronics & High-Tech Exports
Multinationals such as Samsung, Intel, and Foxconn have expanded operations, cementing Vietnam’s position as a key electronics manufacturing hub. Electronics alone contributed 38% of total exports in 2024.
2. Textiles & Footwear
Vietnam remains among the world’s largest textile and footwear exporters, supplying major brands across Europe and North America.
3. Agricultural Products
Rice, coffee, cashews, and seafood saw strong demand, particularly in Asian and Middle Eastern markets.
4. Machinery & Industrial Parts
Growing FDI in manufacturing boosted demand for machinery imports while enabling re-exports of assembled industrial goods.
Major Trade Partners
- China: Vietnam’s largest trading partner with bilateral trade of $205 billion in 2024, though Vietnam runs a trade deficit due to high imports.
- United States: Vietnam’s largest export destination with a $75 billion surplus in 2025 (Jan–Jul).
- European Union: Trade worth $69 billion with a $35 billion surplus in 2024.
- South Korea & Japan: Key suppliers of electronics and industrial inputs.
- ASEAN Region: Bilateral trade hit $84 billion in 2024, supporting regional supply chains.
Challenges Facing Vietnam’s Trade Balance
Despite a positive Vietnam trade balance 2024 and projected Vietnam trade surplus 2025, some challenges remain:
- Global Demand Volatility – Weak consumer demand in Europe affects textiles and footwear exports.
- Rising Input Costs – Petroleum, plastics, and metals imports have become costlier, narrowing margins.
- Currency Fluctuations – The Vietnamese dong faced depreciation pressure amid global monetary tightening.
- Supply Chain Disruptions – Red Sea shipping delays in early 2024 increased logistics costs.
Opportunities & Strategic Shifts in 2025
- Semiconductor Manufacturing: Vietnam aims to become a regional semiconductor hub as FDI rises in high-tech industries.
- Green Exports & ESG: EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism will push Vietnam toward sustainable manufacturing.
- Digital Trade & E-Commerce: Cross-border digital services and e-commerce exports are expanding rapidly.
Vietnam Shipment Data & Role of Trade Data Providers
For businesses exploring new opportunities, Vietnam shipment data offers actionable insights into trade flows, import-export trends, and top-performing sectors. Partnering with a reliable Vietnam trade data provider enables companies to:
- Identify top importers & exporters
- Analyze commodity-level trade flows
- Track competitor activities and pricing trends
Such intelligence helps businesses align with Vietnam’s trade dynamics for strategic growth.
Trade Balance Forecast Scenarios for 2025
| Scenario | Exports (2025) | Imports (2025) | Projected Trade Balance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | $370B | $345B | +$25B |
| Optimistic Case | $385B | $350B | +$35B |
| Pessimistic Case | $355B | $345B | +$10B |
Even under a pessimistic outlook, Vietnam is expected to maintain a Vietnam trade surplus 2025, reinforcing its export-driven growth trajectory.
Conclusion: Vietnam’s Trade Outlook
The Vietnam balance of trade in 2024–25 highlights a resilient economy navigating global challenges with strategic agility. While electronics and agriculture remain export mainstays, emerging sectors like semiconductors, green energy, and digital services promise long-term diversification.
By leveraging FTAs, attracting FDI, and upgrading infrastructure, Vietnam is positioning itself as a key player in global trade. Access to real-time Vietnam shipment data through a trusted Vietnam trade data provider will be crucial for businesses aiming to tap into this growth story.